08.06.12

A win for the “Astroturf”

Posted in 2012 Primary, Around The Nation, Around The State, Election 2012, US Senate Race at 1:01 pm by wcnews

“Tonight is a victory for the grass roots.”
- Ted Cruz after winning the GOP nomination for US Senate

Astro Turf, Texans well know, is the original term for fake grass.  In political terms “Astroturf” means a fake grassroots movement funded by corporations, industry trade associations, political interests or public relations firms.

While Ted Cruz ran a great race, and this is not to take anything away from his win, beating an incumbent is always impressive.  But it’s undeniable that he could have beat Dewhurst without the millions in out of state money he was given. Charles Pierce at Esquire has a great perspective on Cruz’s win, What Happened In Texas Is a Running Off the Rails.

However — and this is the big, honking However in Republican politics these days — Dewhurst’s greatest fault as a candidate apparently was that Goodhair liked him. Proximity to the Republican “establishment,” as Jim DeMint and the Club For Growth define it, was enough to doom Dewhurst as a candidate, even though the “establishment” in this case was represented by a governor who talked openly about seceding from the union. There is a temptation to believe here that Republican voters in Texas, realizing that their party is staring at an electoral abyss going forward, voted strategically for a Hispanic crackpot over a country-club sycophant. There is a temptation to believe that Texas Republicans have behaved intelligently in choosing Cruz not once, but twice. There is also a temptation to believe that Drano is Chateau Petrus. Please do try to resist it.

This is a guy who believes that Sharia law is “an enormous problem” in the country today. This is a guy who believes that George Soros is at the bottom of a secret United Nations plot to eliminate… golf. (Here, of course, Cruz is immersing himself in the paranoid Bircher fantasies regarding our old pal, Agenda 21.) This is a guy who’s a nullifier, thereby putting himself on the opposite side of the Constitution not only from Barack Obama, but from Sam Houston, for chrissakes. This is the guy that a majority of Republicans in Texas believe should represent them in the Senate and they said so, not once, but twice. They wanted a crackpot. They got a crackpot. The real power driving this election wanted them to have a crackpot, so it gave them a crackpot.

This was a triumph for out-of-state-money and out-of-state influence. Rand Paul and Sarah Palin both were more relevant to this election than the governor of Texas was. This was a signal that conservative extremism knows no limits and recognizes no national boundaries. The Tea Party now has morphed into a movement made up solely of three elements: corporate money, television hucksters, and suckers. The first of these make the other two elements possible. If you are a Republican officeholder, especially in a staunchly Republican state, and you don’t see what can happen to you in what happened to David Dewhurst, you should begin your search for a second career right now. If Rick Perry is own self doesn’t hear the bell tolling, he’s a fool. Right now, I’m betting Goodhair’s setting all his mighty mental powers to the task of trying to figure out how he can become more acceptable to the forces that beat him Tuesday night without putting on a gray uniform and personally storming up Little Round Top.

There is an alternate temptation, as I hinted at earlier, to look at Cruz’s victory as another attempt by Republicans to reach out to the growing Hispanic community that threatens to sink the party as its grumpy Caucasian base steadily dies off. The problem with this theory, of course, is that, while Cruz was storming to victory, the Republican secretary-of-state attorney general, a guy named Greg Abbott, remains one of the most enthusiastic voter-suppression advocates anywhere in the country. It is Abbott who went to federal court and argued in favor of essentially gutting the Voting Rights Act. If Cruz is supposed to represent a building wave of conservative Hispanic voters that is going to power the GOP over the next few decades, it’d be nice if Greg Abbott weren’t working so hard to prevent Hispanic voters from casting their ballots.

There are those innocent souls who believe that the current raging extremism that is driving the Republican party will run its course, like a fever, and then the party will take to its bed and return to cool reason, and to its role as an honest partner in the business of governing the Republic. Well, lass’ sie nach Texas kommen, kids. They are going to continue to slake their thirst with salt water, and the rest of us are going to have to live with the delusions that follow. What happened in Texas was in every sense a “runoff.” Something’s gotten into the water supply for all of us.

Certainly there was a lot of hard work from Cruz and his supporters that went into this victory. Also there was some luck (like in any victory), Dewhurst was a bad candidate, and there was a huge assist from Texas Attorney General Gregg Abbott.  Whose redistricting battle pushed the primary, and resulting runoff into the Summer.  Ultimately it was not a victory for the grassroots, but for the Astroturf.

Further Reading:
Ted Cruz’s Deceptive Triumph.
Tea Party’s Cruz Vanquishes GOP Pick for U.S. Senate in Texas Run-off.

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08.01.12

Cruz wins in a romp, faces Sadler in November, Dewhurst to remain Lt. Gov.

Posted in 2012 Primary, Around The State, US Senate Race at 10:30 pm by wcnews

Although by Tuesday it look likely that Ted Cruz would beat David Dewhurst, none of the prognosticators predicted what happened. Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst was crushed in the primary runoff, it wasn’t even close (57% – 43%).  Now many pundits are trying to divine the meaning of Cruz’s win last night.  With the end of an election immediately comes a fresh round of prognosticating on what the results mean.

What the results mean in the short-tem is that it’s likely that Cruz will be the next US Senator from Texas, unless a bunch of Dewhurst voters and donors decide to vigorously support Democratic candidate Paul Sadler - not likely.  Sadler handily defeated his runoff opponent as well, beating Grady Yarbrough (63% – 37%).  In the long-term it’s unknown, as Cruz’s comments about President Obama’s election in 2008 show, we likely don’t know what Cruz’s win will mean in the long run.  Who knows, it could be just what the Democrats in Texas need.

The one rule in politics I’ve come to believe, (and can’t remember who said it), is that things are never as good as they seem or as bad as they seem.  And if Cruz is going to be the next Senator from Texas things seem pretty bad right now, and not just for Democrats in Texas. It probably seems pretty damn bad for the country club Republicans right now too.

Reactions from last yesterdays election:

Kuff, 2012 Democratic primary runoffs and 2012 Republican primary runoffs.

Burka, Voters made good choices.

Slater, Cruz’s GOP Senate victory: What it means.

Ramshaw, Runoff Voters Were in Mood to Oust Incumbents.

Glazer, All Aboard The Crazy Train.

TDP, Game Change.

Williamson County results.

Digby, Tea partying billionaires buy another seat.

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07.31.12

Where to vote in Williamson County for the July 31, 2012 Primary Runoff

Posted in 2012 Primary, Elections at 6:00 am by wcnews

Via the Williamson County Elections Office.

Election Day Polling Places Open 7am to 7pm Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Williamson County voters must vote at their assigned precinct’s polling location on election day.

Precinct Precincto	Location Lugar	Address Direccion
119	Round Rock High School	300 N. Lake Creek Dr. Round Rock
122	Round Rock High School	300 N. Lake Creek Dr. Round Rock
135	Restoration Covenant Church	1150 McNeil Rd. Round Rock
138	Restoration Covenant Church	1150 McNeil Rd. Round Rock
140	Fern Bluff MUD Community Center	7320 Wyoming Springs Rd Round Rock
145	JB and Hallie Jester Annex	1801 E. Old Settlers Blvd. Round Rock
146	Clairmont Retirement Community	12463 Los Indios Tr. Austin
147	Forest North Elementary School	13414 Broadmeade Ave. Austin
149	JB and Hallie Jester Annex	1801 E. Old Settlers Blvd. Round Rock
150	McConico Building	301 W. Bagdad St. Round Rock
151	Deerpark Middle School	8849 Anderson Mill Rd. Austin
152	Deerpark Middle School	8849 Anderson Mill Rd. Austin
160	Fern Bluff MUD Community Center	7320 Wyoming Springs Rd Round Rock
162	Clairmont Retirement Community	12463 Los Indios Tr. Austin
172	Cactus Ranch Elementary School	2901 Goldenoak Circle Round Rock
182	Cactus Ranch Elementary School	2901 Goldenoak Circle Round Rock
185	Clairmont Retirement Community	12463 Los Indios Tr. Austin
186	Patsy Sommer Elementary School	16200 Avery Ranch Blvd.  Austin
189	Rutledge Elementary School	11501 Staked Plains Dr. Austin
190	Fern Bluff MUD Community Center	7320 Wyoming Springs Rd Round Rock
197	Patsy Sommer Elementary School	16200 Avery Ranch Blvd.  Austin
198	Cedar Valley Middle School	8139 Racine Trl. Austin
201	Vista Ridge High School	200 S. Vista Ridge Blvd. Cedar Park
204	Cedar Park Public Library	550 Discovery Blvd Cedar Park
206	Fellowship Baptist Church	3600 RR 1869 Liberty Hill
207	Fellowship Baptist Church	3600 RR 1869 Liberty Hill
216	Noel Grisham Middle School	10805 School House Ln. Austin
218	Bethany United Methodist Church	10010 Anderson Mill Rd. Austin
253	Leander High School	3301 S. Bagdad Rd. Leander
254	Cedar Park Public Library	550 Discovery Blvd Cedar Park
259	Pat Bryson Municipal Hall	201 N. Brushy St. Leander
264	Pat Bryson Municipal Hall	201 N. Brushy St. Leander
266	Cedar Park City Hall Bldg. 3	450 Cypress Creek Rd Cedar Park
267	The Ridge Fellowship	8754 RR 2243 Leander
273	Cypress Elementary School	2900 El Salido Pkwy. Cedar Park
274	Noel Grisham Middle School	10805 School House Ln. Austin
275	Bethany United Methodist Church	10010 Anderson Mill Rd. Austin
277	Cypress Elementary School	2900 El Salido Pkwy. Cedar Park
278	Cedar Park City Hall Bldg. 3	450 Cypress Creek Rd Cedar Park
283	CP Recreation Center	1435 Main St. (Town Center) Cedar Park
287	Highland Estates IRL	1500 N. Lakeline Blvd. Cedar Park
305	Jo Ann Ford Elementary School	210 Woodlake Dr. Georgetown
309	Andice Community Center	6600 FM 970     Florence
310	Florence Volunteer Fire Dept.	301 S. Patterson Ave. Florence
311	First Baptist Church of Weir	315 FM 1105 Weir
312	Jarrell Memorial Park (Com. Bldg.)	1651 CR 305 Jarrell
314	San Gabriel Community Center	445 E. Morrow St. Georgetown
330	Block House Creek Elem. School	401 Creek Run Dr. Leander
331	Block House Creek Elem. School	401 Creek Run Dr. Leander
332	Chandler Oaks Elementary School	3800 Stone Oak Drive Round Rock
333	Chandler Oaks Elementary School	3800 Stone Oak Drive Round Rock
337	Caldwell Heights Elementary School	4010 Eagles Nest St.  Round Rock
339	Caldwell Heights Elementary School	4010 Eagles Nest St.  Round Rock
341	Georgetown ISD Admn. Bldg.	603 Lakeway Dr. Georgetown
342	Gabriel Oaks Church of Christ	1904 S. Austin Ave Georgetown
343	First Baptist Church	1333 W. University Ave. Georgetown
344	First Baptist Church	1333 W. University Ave. Georgetown
368	Gabriel Oaks Church of Christ	1904 S. Austin Ave Georgetown
369	County Central Maintenance Facility	3151 SE Inner Loop  Georgetown
370	County Central Maintenance Facility	3152 SE Inner Loop  Georgetown
371	Georgetown ISD Admn. Bldg.	603 Lakeway Dr. Georgetown
379	River of Life Church	6040 Airport Rd Georgetown
381	Sun City Social Center	2 Texas Dr. Georgetown
392	Village Elementary School	400 Village Commons Blvd. Georgetown
394	Cowan Creek Amenity Center	1433 Cool Springs Way Georgetown
395	Jo Ann Ford Elementary School	210 Woodlake Dr. Georgetown
396	Sun City Social Center	2 Texas Dr. Georgetown
402	Hutto City Hall	401 W. Front St. Hutto
403	Hutto City Hall	401 W. Front St. Hutto
413	Coupland School	620 S. Commerce St. Coupland
415	SPJST Hall	112 W. Davilla St. Granger
420	Hutto Middle School	1005 Exchange Blvd. Hutto
423	Double File Trail Elementary School	2400 Chandler Creek Blvd. Round Rock
424	Forest Creek Elementary School	3505 Forest Creek Dr. Round Rock
425	Holy Temple Church of God	100 E. Elm Ave. Bartlett
426	Farley Middle School	303 CR 137 Hutto
427	Northside Board Room	2500 North St. Taylor
428	Northside Board Room	2500 North St. Taylor
429	Taylor Public Library	801 Vance St. Taylor
434	Thrall Volunteer Fire Dept.	201 S. Main St. Thrall
436	Taylor Public Library	801 Vance St. Taylor
455	Voigt Elementary School	1201 Cushing Dr. Round Rock
456	Taylor Public Library	801 Vance St. Taylor
463	Gattis Elementary School	2920 Round Rock Ranch Blvd. Round Rock
480	Gattis Elementary School	2920 Round Rock Ranch Blvd. Round Rock
484	San Gabriel Rehabilitation & Care Ctr	4100 College Park Dr. Round Rock
488	Forest Creek Elementary School	3505 Forest Creek Dr. Round Rock
491	Double File Trail Elementary School	2400 Chandler Creek Blvd. Round Rock

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07.28.12

4% Primary Runoff Early Vote turnout in Williamson County

Posted in 2012 Primary, Elections, Williamson County at 3:24 pm by wcnews

Via wilco.org just short of 10,000 (9,727) turned out, half of that in the last two days, for a total of 4.02% of registered voters in Williamson county that turned out.

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07.23.12

Will the country club Republicans be out-hustled by the tea part Republicans?

Posted in 2012 Primary, Around The State, Election 2012, US Senate Race at 2:57 pm by wcnews

I haven’t written much on the GOP primary run off for US Senate. Mostly because it’s just a bunch of crap. Both candidates are trying to out “conservative” the other, and it’s really kind of sad. I’m not a GOP voter and I really don’t see much of a difference between the two. The main difference I see is that one is able to self-finance from his bankroll, and the other is being financed by someone else’s bankroll. But they are both awash in cash.

It will be interesting for many reasons if Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst loses the runoff.  But one of the most ironic might be a candidate with hundreds of millions of dollars to self-finance his own campaign, will be taken down, by corporate cash that only exits because of Citizens United.   In other words two years ago Ted Cruz never would have been able to compete, financially, with David Dewhurst and now he can.

The other interesting aspect of a Dewhusrt loss would be what it would mean for the Texas GOP going forward.  Dewhurst has always been more of a daddy-Bush/Romney, elitist, business-first style Republican.  He’s always seemed offended that he’s even being challenged.  But he’s got most of the establishment GOP in Texas lining up behind him.  But a Dewhurst loss will also send a pretty strong signal to moderate Republicans that they can no longer win a primary in Texas.

Will the country club Republicans be out-hustled by the tea part Republicans?  That seems to be the big unanswered question of the run off, which is going to come down to turnout.  Perry defends Dewhurst as ‘solid conservative,’ blasts Cruz-backing super PAC as focused on inside-Beltway politics.

A Dewhurst loss will also start speculation that Dewhurst may have run his last campaign.  And it will stop all the speculation about electing a new Lt. Gov. at the beginning of the next legislative session.

My take on this race is that it’s hard to out wing nut a wing nut. There’s no way Dewhurst can get to the right of Ted Cruz, and he looks silly trying. Everyone knows Dewhurst is a moderate Republican. This race parallels the Perry/Hutchison race of 2010. Who ever gets to the right first wins. But it will be a low turnout election and can still go either way. I’m not counting Dewhurst out, but this is the first time in a while he’s been seriously challenged since 2002 and it shows.

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Early Voting for the July 31st primary runoff starts today

Posted in 2012 Primary, Around The State, Election 2012 at 6:00 am by wcnews

Primary Runoff Early Voting Schedule

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07.13.12

Would a Cruz win end the crossover myth?

Posted in 2012 Primary, Around The State, Commentary, Election 2012, US Senate Race at 1:46 pm by wcnews

The crossover myth goes something like this.  [Insert wing nut GOP candidate name here] is so far to the right that so-called moderate Republicans will crossover in the general election and vote for the Democratic Party candidate.  That seems to be what Bud Kennedy and Democratic US Senate candidate Paul Sadler are saying in this article, To some in GOP, Tea is bitter brew.

If East Texas lawyer Paul Sadler can win his party’s July 31 runoff, he stands ready to pick up support from the 20 percent of Republicans who consider themselves too moderate for Tea.

“There is such a culture of fear in that party, I don’t think any Republican could ever publicly support a Democrat,” Sadler said on his way to raise money in Dallas.

But privately?

“More than one” of Sadler’s former fellow Texas House lawmakers has promised to cross party lines and support him, he said.

“I don’t want this to come out as ‘Sadler has a chance if Cruz wins’ because I think I have a good chance anyway,” he said.

“I think a majority of voters will still respond to somebody who can solve problems and who tells them the truth.”

Sadler is your typical underfunded long-shot Democrat. But he might draw moderate voters.

Not many Democrats stayed as overnight guests in Gov. George W. Bush’s White House or were praised in his book A Charge to Keep.

As chairman of the House Public Education Committee, Sadler worked with Bush and Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Ratliff to pass the governor’s education reforms and repair Texas’ school finance system.

“We were trying to solve problems and move the state forward, and back then we thought that was important,” he said.

It’s a familiar myth, that Democrats have been hearing, (or telling themselves), for damn near 20 years. But Cruz, if he wins, could be the most right wing Texas GOP candidate, with a real chance of winning, in modern history. While Perry may say some of the same things as Cruz, the “bidness” community in Texas knows where Perry’s real allegiance is – to them and not the tea party. But with Cruz they may not be so sure.

So it’s worth asking the question, is Ted Cruz so far to the right could he end the crossover myth? Provided, that is, that Sadler wins the Democratic Party nomination. The one sticking point left, that would keep the myth intact would be this, (via Booman).

You have to read to page five of Robert Draper’s piece on Obama’s Super PAC to find the money quote.

[Bill] Burton and his colleagues spent the early months of 2012 trying out the pitch that Romney was the most far-right presidential candidate since Barry Goldwater. It fell flat. The public did not view Romney as an extremist. For example, when Priorities [USA] informed a focus group that Romney supported the [Paul] Ryan budget plan — and thus championed “ending Medicare as we know it” — while also advocating tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, the respondents simply refused to believe any politician would do such a thing.

In the context of the article, this bit of information is used to explain why Priorities USA pivoted to focusing on Mitt Romney’s career at Bain Capital. But we should consider what this information means for the Romney campaign. His actual economic policies are so unpopular that people simply refuse to believe he could actually be advocating them. And that is precisely why he isn’t advocating them. He is not talking about what is actually in Paul Ryan’s budget proposal at all. Nor will he. It polls so badly that you can’t even run ads against it because people don’t believe anyone would be so radical as to propose such things.

So, that’s the starting point for understanding this election. Team Romney is trying to steal a page out of Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign by making this an election all about the economy, stupid. But his economic plans are unmentionable. Their substance is taboo. All substance on the core issue is off limits. Romney is waging a campaign on the economy without articulating any specifics.

The specifics exist, of course, in the Ryan Plan or Romney’s 29-page economic plan (or however long it is), but he’s not interested in discussing those details. Why would he be? He might as well indicate that, if elected, he intends to infect every American with chlamydia. For the same reason that Bill Burton and Paul Begala discovered that Romney’s economic plan was not ripe for criticism, Romney knows it isn’t ripe for advocacy either. It’s just this toxic thing that neither side wants to touch.

But it really is what the Republicans want and intend to do if they get the power to do it.

That most Republicans still believe that no matter which one of these guys win the nomination, neither one of them is really serious about supporting the Ryan budget plan and austerity at the federal level.

The difference – the deal breaker – may be that Cruz is a true believer, a true regressive, where with Romney/Dewhurst it’s anybody’s guess what they really believe.  (But a look at their wealth makes it obvious they’re pro-business first).  But there’s one more thing that needs to be figured out, if the myth is to become reality.

How does a general election race between Cruz and Sadler play out, where Sadler is able to exploit Cruz’s failings and beat him?  As we know, it’s been a while since a Democrat has won statewide in Texas. And to win, Sadler will need oodles of money, fast. How does that happen? The only way that happens is A LOT of these so-called moderate Republicans, and members of the “bidness community” in Texas, would have to come out, and decide, it’s better to support Sadler, then a wing nut Republican like Cruz in the general election.

One can hope, but that’s not likely to happen, no matter how many GOP state Senators get their feelings hurt.  But on the other hand, winning a US Senate seat over a divided Democratic Party candidate, is where the GOP started it’s return to power in Texas.

Further Reading:
Cruz leads in Texas runoff.
Texas Senate Showdown: Cruzing, But is Ted Headed for a Bruzing?

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05.31.12

Statewide Primary Analysis

Posted in 2012 Primary, Around The State, Commentary, Election 2012, Speakers Race, The Lege, US Senate Race at 11:06 am by wcnews

My first thought about the statewide results was, “Oh Crap!! We’re going to have to live through sixty more days of Dewhurst, Cruz, Dick Armey, and Koch money lies.  Who wins this is anybody’s guess at this point. All we know right now is that the money will flow freely and the truth will be nowhere to be found.

The other disappointment was the results for Sean Hubbard on the Democratic side in the race to replace Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the US Senate. And as Harold Cook pointed out in his analysis, Notes on the Texas primary elections, the results show that the debate “meant less-than-nothing”. It was a debate in which Hubbard performed very well, but his lack of name ID was too much to overcome. Hopefully he’ll run for office in the future. Paul Sadler is the best option to take on the eventual GOP nominee in November.  Hubbard endorsed Sadler.  Sadler will face Grady Yarbough in the runoff.

In the state Senate races they mostly went as planned, with the Senate becoming a less experienced and more right wing chamber. Via the Texas Tribune.

In Texas Senate races, it was a night for the conservatives. Four Republican senators are leaving of their own accord, and all four could be replaced by candidates more conservative than the incumbents. Replace Florence Shapiro, R-Plano, with Ken Paxton, R-McKinney; Mike Jackson, R-La Porte, with Larry Taylor, R-Friendswood; Chris Harris, R-Arlington, with Kelly Hancock, R-North Richland Hills; and Steve Ogden, R-Bryan, with Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown.

In the Texas House races there were six GOP incubments that lost and several more are headed to primary run offs. The losers were Marva Beck, Leo Berman, Wayne Christian, Rob Eissler, Mike Hamilton, Barbara Nash, and Vicki Truitt. Four more incumbent Repubicans in the House are headeed to runoffs – Chuck Hopson, J. M. Lozano, Sid Miller, and Jim Landtroop. Kuff has more on the GOP races around the state, and how the Parent PAC slate fared (mixed results).

On the Democratic side there were no incumbents that lost in their primary.  There will be three runoffs, none with an incumbnet, via Kuff.

HD40 – Terry Canales versus Auggie Hernandez
HD95 – Nicole Collier versus Jesse Gaines
HD117 – Phillip Cortez versus Tina Torres

The biggest story on the Democratic side was the loss of incumbent Congressman Sylvestre Reyes to challenger Beto O’Rourke in El Paso. Here’s more Congressional analysis from Kuff.

- The Campaign for Primary Accountability may have its scalp here. As of last report, Beto O’Rourke was leading Rep. Silvestre Reyes with 51.34% of the vote to Reyes’ 43.31%. (I’m going by Trib results here.) Rep. Eddie Berniece Johnson cruised in CD30 with over 70% of the vote, Rep. Ruben Hinojosa finished with 71% in CD15, and Rep. Lloyd Doggett won easily in CD35, with 73%. Reyes was the only Congressional casualty, but not necessarily the only interesting result. Former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez led the field in CD23 and will face former State Rep. Pete Gallego in the runoff. Rodriguez was above 50% for much of the night but Gallego caught up late to force overtime. Also going into overtime:

CD33 – Former State Rep. Marc Veasey (38%) versus former State Rep. Domingo Garcia (24%). I’m grimly pleased to note that the guy who spent over a million bucks of his own money, David Alameel, came in fourth.

CD34 – Filemon Vela, with 41%, most likely against Denise Saenz Blanchard, who led Ramiro Garza by about 140 votes with several precincts still out. Former Cameron County DA Armando Villalobos, who looked like the frontrunner at one point, came in fifth. I’m guessing those federal charges didn’t help his cause much.

CD27 – Jerry Trevino (40%) versus Rose Meza Harrison (32%). Ronnie McDonald was third with 26%. I hope he runs for something else in 2014, too.

Former Rep. Nick Lampson took over 80% of the vote in CD14. I’m pretty sure he’s happy that both of his potential opponents are from Pearland.

The biggest question and most talked about issue, that won’t be answered until January 2013, is who will be the Speaker or the Texas House.  (Of course should Dewhurst win the US Senate seat in November, there will be one on the Senate side too).  Many, and Straus himself don’t think he did too bad on Tuesday.  While his main opponent, Michael Quinn Sullivan, thinks he did.  I’m more with Sullivan, (Straus lost three committee chairs), and think he didn’t have a good day.  Also we’re starting to get used to a Speaker’s race every two years in Texas, and the GOP will have more than the 76 votes needed to vote him out.  So it’s possible, but not likely….yet.

No matter what we already know the turnover in the House is going to be massive.  At this point there are  38  we know are not returning, and there’s the potential it could reach 50, 1/3rd of the membership.  It’s going to be an even more inexperienced body then it was last session, as will the Senate, and there will again be very important issues on the agenda.  And as long as members of the Lege are more concerned about phoney pledges, then they are about doing what’s right, we cannot expect good outcomes for the majority of working Texans and their families.

More Primary Analysis wrap ups:

Kuff, More reactions to the election results.
Emily Ramshaw, What Surprised Pundits and Pollsters on Primary Night.
TFN, Split Decision by Voters in Texas SBOE Primary Contests.
Brains and Eggs, Late last night (and more musings about election results).
Grits for Breakfast on Duty’s win over Bradley, Incumbent DAs ouster points to police union power.
Tx Trib, Looking at Perry’s and Combs’ Endorsements.

The run off will be on Tuesday, July 31st. And the Secretary of State has the Primary Run Off rules.

The Primary Run-Off will take place on July 31st. Registered voters who voted in the Primary can vote in the same Party Run-Off election. If a registered voter did not vote in the Primary they may vote in either party’s Run-Off election. Eligible Texans who are not registered to vote must register by July 2, 2012 to vote in the July 31st Run-Off election.

A full list of the Run-offs in Texas (via QR) below the fold:

Read the rest of this entry �

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05.30.12

Williamson County Primary results and analysis

Posted in 2012 Primary, Commentary, Williamson County at 11:49 am by wcnews

The headline from yesterday, of course, is that come 2013 John Bradley will no longer be the District Attorney in Williamson County.  Jana Duty beat him, (55% – 45%), a pretty good drubbing of a 10 year incumbent.  Despite Bradley being endorsed by Gooberner Perry he still wasn’t able to win reelection.  At least there are enough members of the GOP in Williamson County that have limits, and kept Bradley from winning.  It’s doubtful this is the last we’ve heard of Bradley, look for him to show up somewhere in the Perry camp once his term is up at the DA’s office.

It’s hard to know what kind of a DA Duty would be, but it’s likely she would have a good relationship with law enforcement and not so good with the commissioners court.  No matter who wins in November, Duty or Democrat Ken Crain, let’s hope the office is run in a more fair manner, and that indigent defendants are no longer denied their rights.

There were a couple of other tight races on the GOP side.  Incumbent Precinct 1 Commissioner Lisa Birkman  held on against challenger Lee Ann Seitsinger (52% – 48%).  Birkman, who won by 217 votes, always seems to have close races, (too bad there’s no Democrat running against her in November).  In Precinct 3 Incumbent Valerie Covey easily won her contest over challenger Greg Windham (69% – 31%).  Both of those races show that the GOP base in Williamson County weren’t moved much by the “debt” issue.  The other tight race was for Constable in Precinct 3 with incumbent Bobby Gutierrez beating Barry Simmons (52% – 48%),  a margin of 346 votes.

On the Democratic side there were no contested races locally.  In the newly created Texas House District 136, an open seat, it will Democrat Matt Stillwell against GOP nominee Tony Dale in November.

[UPDATE]: Forgot a couple of local races.  Dee Hobbs won the three-way race for County Attorney with 53% of the vote.  And Charles Schwertner won the race to replace state Sen. Steve Ogden in SD 5 over Ben Bius, 75% -25%

Statewide analysis tomorrow.

Full Results from the county web site are below (all are unofficial):

County wide

Precinct by Precinct

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05.29.12

Election Results for the 2012 Primary in Williamson County

Posted in 2012 Primary, Williamson County at 9:00 pm by wcnews

Here’s the link to the Williamson County Election Results page.

Also statewide results are here.

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