05.31.12

Statewide Primary Analysis

Posted in 2012 Primary, Around The State, Commentary, Election 2012, Speakers Race, The Lege, US Senate Race at 11:06 am by wcnews

My first thought about the statewide results was, “Oh Crap!! We’re going to have to live through sixty more days of Dewhurst, Cruz, Dick Armey, and Koch money lies.  Who wins this is anybody’s guess at this point. All we know right now is that the money will flow freely and the truth will be nowhere to be found.

The other disappointment was the results for Sean Hubbard on the Democratic side in the race to replace Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the US Senate. And as Harold Cook pointed out in his analysis, Notes on the Texas primary elections, the results show that the debate “meant less-than-nothing”. It was a debate in which Hubbard performed very well, but his lack of name ID was too much to overcome. Hopefully he’ll run for office in the future. Paul Sadler is the best option to take on the eventual GOP nominee in November.  Hubbard endorsed Sadler.  Sadler will face Grady Yarbough in the runoff.

In the state Senate races they mostly went as planned, with the Senate becoming a less experienced and more right wing chamber. Via the Texas Tribune.

In Texas Senate races, it was a night for the conservatives. Four Republican senators are leaving of their own accord, and all four could be replaced by candidates more conservative than the incumbents. Replace Florence Shapiro, R-Plano, with Ken Paxton, R-McKinney; Mike Jackson, R-La Porte, with Larry Taylor, R-Friendswood; Chris Harris, R-Arlington, with Kelly Hancock, R-North Richland Hills; and Steve Ogden, R-Bryan, with Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown.

In the Texas House races there were six GOP incubments that lost and several more are headed to primary run offs. The losers were Marva Beck, Leo Berman, Wayne Christian, Rob Eissler, Mike Hamilton, Barbara Nash, and Vicki Truitt. Four more incumbent Repubicans in the House are headeed to runoffs – Chuck Hopson, J. M. Lozano, Sid Miller, and Jim Landtroop. Kuff has more on the GOP races around the state, and how the Parent PAC slate fared (mixed results).

On the Democratic side there were no incumbents that lost in their primary.  There will be three runoffs, none with an incumbnet, via Kuff.

HD40 – Terry Canales versus Auggie Hernandez
HD95 – Nicole Collier versus Jesse Gaines
HD117 – Phillip Cortez versus Tina Torres

The biggest story on the Democratic side was the loss of incumbent Congressman Sylvestre Reyes to challenger Beto O’Rourke in El Paso. Here’s more Congressional analysis from Kuff.

- The Campaign for Primary Accountability may have its scalp here. As of last report, Beto O’Rourke was leading Rep. Silvestre Reyes with 51.34% of the vote to Reyes’ 43.31%. (I’m going by Trib results here.) Rep. Eddie Berniece Johnson cruised in CD30 with over 70% of the vote, Rep. Ruben Hinojosa finished with 71% in CD15, and Rep. Lloyd Doggett won easily in CD35, with 73%. Reyes was the only Congressional casualty, but not necessarily the only interesting result. Former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez led the field in CD23 and will face former State Rep. Pete Gallego in the runoff. Rodriguez was above 50% for much of the night but Gallego caught up late to force overtime. Also going into overtime:

CD33 – Former State Rep. Marc Veasey (38%) versus former State Rep. Domingo Garcia (24%). I’m grimly pleased to note that the guy who spent over a million bucks of his own money, David Alameel, came in fourth.

CD34 – Filemon Vela, with 41%, most likely against Denise Saenz Blanchard, who led Ramiro Garza by about 140 votes with several precincts still out. Former Cameron County DA Armando Villalobos, who looked like the frontrunner at one point, came in fifth. I’m guessing those federal charges didn’t help his cause much.

CD27 – Jerry Trevino (40%) versus Rose Meza Harrison (32%). Ronnie McDonald was third with 26%. I hope he runs for something else in 2014, too.

Former Rep. Nick Lampson took over 80% of the vote in CD14. I’m pretty sure he’s happy that both of his potential opponents are from Pearland.

The biggest question and most talked about issue, that won’t be answered until January 2013, is who will be the Speaker or the Texas House.  (Of course should Dewhurst win the US Senate seat in November, there will be one on the Senate side too).  Many, and Straus himself don’t think he did too bad on Tuesday.  While his main opponent, Michael Quinn Sullivan, thinks he did.  I’m more with Sullivan, (Straus lost three committee chairs), and think he didn’t have a good day.  Also we’re starting to get used to a Speaker’s race every two years in Texas, and the GOP will have more than the 76 votes needed to vote him out.  So it’s possible, but not likely….yet.

No matter what we already know the turnover in the House is going to be massive.  At this point there are  38  we know are not returning, and there’s the potential it could reach 50, 1/3rd of the membership.  It’s going to be an even more inexperienced body then it was last session, as will the Senate, and there will again be very important issues on the agenda.  And as long as members of the Lege are more concerned about phoney pledges, then they are about doing what’s right, we cannot expect good outcomes for the majority of working Texans and their families.

More Primary Analysis wrap ups:

Kuff, More reactions to the election results.
Emily Ramshaw, What Surprised Pundits and Pollsters on Primary Night.
TFN, Split Decision by Voters in Texas SBOE Primary Contests.
Brains and Eggs, Late last night (and more musings about election results).
Grits for Breakfast on Duty’s win over Bradley, Incumbent DAs ouster points to police union power.
Tx Trib, Looking at Perry’s and Combs’ Endorsements.

The run off will be on Tuesday, July 31st. And the Secretary of State has the Primary Run Off rules.

The Primary Run-Off will take place on July 31st. Registered voters who voted in the Primary can vote in the same Party Run-Off election. If a registered voter did not vote in the Primary they may vote in either party’s Run-Off election. Eligible Texans who are not registered to vote must register by July 2, 2012 to vote in the July 31st Run-Off election.

A full list of the Run-offs in Texas (via QR) below the fold:

Run-offs

 

RRC 1 Parker v. Smitherman

RRC 2 Chisum v. Craddick

 

TXSC4 Devine v. Medina

 

SBOE 2 Cortez v. Sanchez

SBOE 10 Maynard v. Osborne

SBOE 12 Miller v. Spurlock

 

US Senate Cruz v. Dewhurst

US Senate Sadler v. Yarbourgh

 

CD 5 Mrosko v.Berry

CD 7 Cargas v. Squirers

CD 14 Harris v. Weber

CD 23 Rodriguez v Gallego

CD 25 Riddle v. R. Williams

CD 33 Garcia v. Veasey

CD 34 Vela v. Blanchard

CD 36 Stockman v. Takach

 

SD 25 Wentworth v. Campbell

 

HD 11 Clardy v. Hopson

HD 12 Anderson v. Kacal

HD 23 Wallace v. Faircloth

HD 24 Bonnen v. Sitton

HD 26 Chaumetter v. R. Miller

HD 40 Canales v. Hernandez

HD 43 Lozano v. Wilson

HD 59 S. Miller v. Sheffield

HD 67 Cole v. Leach

HD 68 McKnight v. Springer

HD 88 Landtroop v. K. King

HD 91 Klick v. Sapp

HD 95 Collier v. Gaines

HD 114 B. Keffer v. Villalba

HD 115 Nguyen v. Ratliff

HD 117 Cortez v Torres

HD 137 Smith v. Wu

 

1 Comment »

  1. Eye on Williamson » TPA Blog Round Up (June 4, 2012) said,

    June 4, 2012 at 9:21 am

    [...] After being from Early March to late May the Texas Primary in 2012 finally took place. WCNews at Eye on Williamson posted this Statewide Primary Analysis. [...]

Leave a Comment

You must be logged in to post a comment.