07.13.12

Would a Cruz win end the crossover myth?

Posted in 2012 Primary, Around The State, Commentary, Election 2012, US Senate Race at 1:46 pm by wcnews

The crossover myth goes something like this.  [Insert wing nut GOP candidate name here] is so far to the right that so-called moderate Republicans will crossover in the general election and vote for the Democratic Party candidate.  That seems to be what Bud Kennedy and Democratic US Senate candidate Paul Sadler are saying in this article, To some in GOP, Tea is bitter brew.

If East Texas lawyer Paul Sadler can win his party’s July 31 runoff, he stands ready to pick up support from the 20 percent of Republicans who consider themselves too moderate for Tea.

“There is such a culture of fear in that party, I don’t think any Republican could ever publicly support a Democrat,” Sadler said on his way to raise money in Dallas.

But privately?

“More than one” of Sadler’s former fellow Texas House lawmakers has promised to cross party lines and support him, he said.

“I don’t want this to come out as ‘Sadler has a chance if Cruz wins’ because I think I have a good chance anyway,” he said.

“I think a majority of voters will still respond to somebody who can solve problems and who tells them the truth.”

Sadler is your typical underfunded long-shot Democrat. But he might draw moderate voters.

Not many Democrats stayed as overnight guests in Gov. George W. Bush’s White House or were praised in his book A Charge to Keep.

As chairman of the House Public Education Committee, Sadler worked with Bush and Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Ratliff to pass the governor’s education reforms and repair Texas’ school finance system.

“We were trying to solve problems and move the state forward, and back then we thought that was important,” he said.

It’s a familiar myth, that Democrats have been hearing, (or telling themselves), for damn near 20 years. But Cruz, if he wins, could be the most right wing Texas GOP candidate, with a real chance of winning, in modern history. While Perry may say some of the same things as Cruz, the “bidness” community in Texas knows where Perry’s real allegiance is – to them and not the tea party. But with Cruz they may not be so sure.

So it’s worth asking the question, is Ted Cruz so far to the right could he end the crossover myth? Provided, that is, that Sadler wins the Democratic Party nomination. The one sticking point left, that would keep the myth intact would be this, (via Booman).

You have to read to page five of Robert Draper’s piece on Obama’s Super PAC to find the money quote.

[Bill] Burton and his colleagues spent the early months of 2012 trying out the pitch that Romney was the most far-right presidential candidate since Barry Goldwater. It fell flat. The public did not view Romney as an extremist. For example, when Priorities [USA] informed a focus group that Romney supported the [Paul] Ryan budget plan — and thus championed “ending Medicare as we know it” — while also advocating tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, the respondents simply refused to believe any politician would do such a thing.

In the context of the article, this bit of information is used to explain why Priorities USA pivoted to focusing on Mitt Romney’s career at Bain Capital. But we should consider what this information means for the Romney campaign. His actual economic policies are so unpopular that people simply refuse to believe he could actually be advocating them. And that is precisely why he isn’t advocating them. He is not talking about what is actually in Paul Ryan’s budget proposal at all. Nor will he. It polls so badly that you can’t even run ads against it because people don’t believe anyone would be so radical as to propose such things.

So, that’s the starting point for understanding this election. Team Romney is trying to steal a page out of Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign by making this an election all about the economy, stupid. But his economic plans are unmentionable. Their substance is taboo. All substance on the core issue is off limits. Romney is waging a campaign on the economy without articulating any specifics.

The specifics exist, of course, in the Ryan Plan or Romney’s 29-page economic plan (or however long it is), but he’s not interested in discussing those details. Why would he be? He might as well indicate that, if elected, he intends to infect every American with chlamydia. For the same reason that Bill Burton and Paul Begala discovered that Romney’s economic plan was not ripe for criticism, Romney knows it isn’t ripe for advocacy either. It’s just this toxic thing that neither side wants to touch.

But it really is what the Republicans want and intend to do if they get the power to do it.

That most Republicans still believe that no matter which one of these guys win the nomination, neither one of them is really serious about supporting the Ryan budget plan and austerity at the federal level.

The difference – the deal breaker – may be that Cruz is a true believer, a true regressive, where with Romney/Dewhurst it’s anybody’s guess what they really believe.  (But a look at their wealth makes it obvious they’re pro-business first).  But there’s one more thing that needs to be figured out, if the myth is to become reality.

How does a general election race between Cruz and Sadler play out, where Sadler is able to exploit Cruz’s failings and beat him?  As we know, it’s been a while since a Democrat has won statewide in Texas. And to win, Sadler will need oodles of money, fast. How does that happen? The only way that happens is A LOT of these so-called moderate Republicans, and members of the “bidness community” in Texas, would have to come out, and decide, it’s better to support Sadler, then a wing nut Republican like Cruz in the general election.

One can hope, but that’s not likely to happen, no matter how many GOP state Senators get their feelings hurt.  But on the other hand, winning a US Senate seat over a divided Democratic Party candidate, is where the GOP started it’s return to power in Texas.

Further Reading:
Cruz leads in Texas runoff.
Texas Senate Showdown: Cruzing, But is Ted Headed for a Bruzing?

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