06.02.07
Hillary and Craddick
Apparently Tom Craddick’s strategy to save his job is to make sure Hillary Clinton gets the Democratic Nomination for President. At least that’s what Paul Burka and Clay Robison, who brought this up a couple of weeks back, are reporting.
Burka:
I had a conversation with a Craddick staffer during one of those stand at ease moments in the final days (never was standing at ease so uneasy) during which he said that the speaker believed the Republicans could pick up as many as eight House seats in 08 if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee. I don’t agree with the number, but the underlying reasoning is sound.
Robison:
If his speakership survives the remaining eight days of this legislative session — and that is debatable — Tom Craddick may begin offering a few silent prayers for Hillary Clinton.
While it has appeal in a fun sort of way, after further review, as they say, it doesn’t hold much water.
People usually show up to vote for someone, not against someone. If that was the case “Dubya” wouldn’t have stood a chance in 2004. This theory also doesn’t take presidential/electoral college politics into account. This theory makes the assumption that Texas is in play if Hillary is the nominee, otherwise there’s no reason a Texans vote would matter when it comes to the presidential race. I’m not sure Texas would be in play no matter who the nominee is.
They’re also assuming that these folks that supposedly show up to vote against Hillary, will also vote a straight ticket for Republicans – as Texas is becoming more independent – to give Craddick the seats he needs. Assuming he wins enough primary races. Not to mention if he has enough viable challengers against incumbent Democrats.
It also totally discounts the lack of interest there may be in the future GOP nominee. The Republicans should be more worried about their nominees inability to draw voters to the polls, and what the lack of a chance they have of regaining the White House in 2008 will do to keep their voters home, no matter who the eventual Democratic nominee is. And if this is Craddick’s strategy to keep his job, he might as well start apartment hunting.
PDiddie said,
June 3, 2007 at 6:25 am
I think Burka and Robison and whoever’s whispering in their ears is correct.
Hillary is quite toxic to our down-ballot Democrats because of her unique ability to mobilize enthusiastic opposition.
I’m afraid she sets Texas Democrats back another generation. And I just don’t think we can afford that.
I think Obama sadly has the same effect with the conservative bigots, driving them out of the woods and to the polls to vote against a (black man).
But at least I could vote for him.
I’ll have to go Green if it’s Hillary.
wcnews said,
June 3, 2007 at 1:52 pm
I completely understand the toxicity part. But I don’t think Texas is in play, for the presidential race, no matter who the D nominee is and that’s the reason I think people won’t show up just to vote against the Democratic nominee who has no chance of winning in Texas. Especially with a less than exciting Republican nominee to vote for. I see their/your point but I just don’t buy it.
I don’t think it’s a set back for a generation. Politics can change fast, especially it things get really bad.
I’m still undecided on the current field of D’s but if Gore gets in I’m decided.
wcnews said,
June 3, 2007 at 2:41 pm
And I also doubt the effects of this down ballot helping Craddick R’s as the electorate becomes more independent and less reliable Republican.
Eye on Williamson » HK on Hillary In Texas said,
July 30, 2007 at 11:59 pm
[...] EOW’s with Harvey Kronberg, (hat tip to Greg), “it is going to take more than Hillary Clinton on the ticket to revive Republican momentum“. [...]
Eye on Williamson » AG Abbott Attempts To Lower GOP Expectations For 2008 - [UPDATED] said,
August 10, 2007 at 4:01 pm
[...] Somebody needs to tell Sen. Kim Brimer that denial and Craddicks Speaker reelection strategy is not a very good strategy. Via QR: Those fires were stoked yesterday by a Lone Star Project [...]
Eye on Williamson » What Will Texas GOP Do If Clinton Doesn’t Win? said,
January 8, 2008 at 1:49 pm
[...] Tom Craddick and the Texas Republicans have been hanging their 2008 hopes on being able to run against Hillary Clinton in November, seeing it as an inevitability that she would be the Democratic nominee for President. But that flawed strategy and their arrogance may come back to bite them. They weren’t the only ones that thought that, that’s for sure. But with Barack Obama likely to win the second contest in the nominating process today, his nomination or that of John Edwards, would kill their hopes. And with it Craddick and the Texas GOP’s prime 2008 election strategy. [...]