09.01.07
AAS Previews 2008 State House Races
The main story, Speaker politics an undercurrent in House races, pertains to what Craddick is up to at this point in the upcoming primary season.
On the campaign trail, it is Craddick’s ability to call on big Republican donors, lobbyists and his own $3.8 million war chest that makes him so formidable — and makes so many GOP incumbents fearful that he will recruit opposition for them. Democrats expect him to dabble in their primaries by trying to protect his Democrat allies, without making it obvious, or recruiting Democrat incumbents in swing districts by convincing them that he can discourage GOP opposition.
Craddick isn’t saying. He refused an interview to discuss his plans for the 2008 campaign, and press secretary Alexis DeLee said he’s not answering speculative questions about strategy. As in the past, DeLee said, Craddick will campaign personally for any incumbent of either party who requests him to do so.
His actions, however, say volumes to his opponents.
Kelly Fero, an Austin-based Democratic consultant, said people close to Craddick talked to him about helping in Democrat primaries, but nothing came of it.
“It showed me they are looking for new ways to hang on to power,” Fero said.
Two other things in this article. The GOP primary races will move the candidates to the right which could open up some of these areas to Democratic challenges. The second is that the Democrats are having trouble finding someone to challenge Rep. Dawnna Dukes.
Benkiser said competitive primaries can be healthy and re-energize the Republican base, but Democratic consultant Matt Angle said it will prove to be a distraction that forces GOP nominees toward political extremes.
“It absorbs their money, takes up their time and reminds people they are ideological,” he said. “They’ll end up outbidding each other in moving to the right.”
Democrats, of course, will have their own contested primaries, although most of them appear in safe areas such as the Rio Grande Valley, where the issue is whether to replace one Democrat with another.
But challenging an incumbent, even a Craddick supporter in a Democratic primary, is no easy thing, as Travis County Democrats are finding out. Several consultants have sought candidates to oppose Rep. Dawnna Dukes, D-Austin, whose support of Craddick brought her key committee assignments she said would help her district.
Austin Democratic consultant David Butts is still looking.
“We have to have people who give a damn for average people in this state, and I don’t think Tom Craddick does,” he said. “She voted for him to advance her own position. I think that was wrong.”
Butts acknowledges, however, that Dukes has made few bad votes for Democrats outside of her support for Craddick. He added that it is hard to persuade someone to tackle an incumbent for a $7,200-a-year job.
The second article on this is what they’re calling the Early Birds. Of course Diana Maldonado’s challenge in HD-52 is on the list.
Mike Krusee, R-Williamson County: Round Rock school trustee Diana Maldonado, a Democrat, may test whether Krusee’s narrow victory in 2006 over underfunded Democrat portends trouble for next year. Once a Craddick lieutenant, Krusee split with the speaker over his quest to hold onto power