03.10.08
It Was A Democratic Blowout
Via Harvey Kronberg from his News 8 commentary, Primary voter turnout near 2006 gubernational election total.
In case you didn’t notice, we had a primary election last week and it was a blowout.
For decades now, the Democratic and Republican primaries have been the personal property of political activists — the true believers on the right and the left.
The combined turnout for both parties in a typical presidential primary has never broken 20 percent with both parties contributing roughly equal amounts of voters. So, any time one of three registered voters show up for a primary, it’s worth celebrating.
To put it a little differently, almost as many people voted in last week’s primaries as did in the entire 2006 gubernatorial election.
Republicans and Democrats both set turnout records, but for the first time in decades, it was the Democrats that owned the story.
[…]
But by any measure the Democrats had the blowout. The Clinton-Obama contest produced nearly 2.9 million primary voters, which doubled their numbers from 2004 and tripled those of the 2000 turnout.
While the Democrats had more than twice as many voters show up as Republicans, pollsters warn that most of these are November voters who were excited by the presidential election and showed up to vote in March.
We really won’t know until the fall whether or not Republicans still enjoy a 9 point advantage over Democrats in Texas. My own suspicion is that the 9 points is eroding.
But the best news for Texas Democrats is in the Legislature. When you drill down, there is substantial evidence that Democrats are poised to gain seats in the Texas House.
The Republican majority has already shrunk from 88 to 79 in four years.
Democratic gains of just two or three seats could mean a major shift in power.
A good day Tuesday and good media to follow. Not only the numbers but it’s been a long time since Democrats in Texas have gotten good media. Blowout!!