05.15.08

It’s Bad Out There For Republicans

Posted in Around The Nation, Around The State, Commentary, Had Enough Yet? at 3:14 pm by wcnews

After the 2006 elections it was said that Texas is usually 2 years behind the national political trends. If that’s the case then Republicans in Texas better look out. The signs are truly daunting for the GOP at this point. It’s not just the flood of voters that turned out for the Democratic Primary in March here in Texas, but Democratic turnout is up all over the nation.

One sure sign is which party does well in the special elections between two year election cycles. Not only are Democrats winning but they’re winning traditionally Republican seats. (Former Speaker Hastert’s seat, one in Louisiana, and one in Mississippi). These losses do not bode well for the GOP because these elections are usually feature light turnout and are won by the party that turns out it base. These election are usually a preview of the upcoming general election, the party that wins these special elections usually does very well in the fall. Democrats in Texas have also done well lately in special elections.

Another sign is the trend that there are less voters self-identifying as Republicans. This number has been trending back to Democrats ever since Bush’s 2004 election. But the gap continues to widen. To be clear Democrats are not receiving all the benefit. Many are choosing to claim Independent status, but more of those Independents are leaning Democratic.

There’s been a steady pulse of bad news for Republicans lately, and the infighting has begun. Paul Burka over at his blog recently said this, “Hardly a day goes by that the leading national political web sites don’t have gloomy news for R’s”. And he has more from today saying, “I don’t believe for one minute that Texas is exempt from these trends”. Former GOP Speaker Newt Gingrich recently said this, “Without change the Republican Party in the House could revert to the permanent minority status it had from 1930 to 1994″. Almost 65 years in the minority because of a disastrous run in the majority and presidency from 1921to 1933, that ended with the Great Depression. Yes, our grandparents and great grandparents went through this last century. Maybe this time we can stave off economic disaster before it’s too late.

The parallels between our current situation and the last time our country recovered from Republican dominance are eerie. The gap between rich and poor is at a level not seen since just before the Great Depression. Government regulation is virtuall non-existent, it’s corporations gone wild. The current drive to privatize everything and give corporations the benefit of the doubt, over the people is staggering. Our roads, bridges, waterlines, sewers – our total infrastructure – which was built during that 65 year Democratic Congressional majority, is now crumbling from the neglect of the last 25 years of Republican inability to govern. Instead of privatizing we should be using this as an opportunity to create jobs and rebuild.

As the Gingirch plea points out the GOP’s tired message and dirty politics are no longer working.

The Republican brand has been so badly damaged that if Republicans try to run an anti-Obama, anti- Reverend Wright, or (if Senator Clinton wins), anti-Clinton campaign, they are simply going to fail.

This model has already been tested with disastrous results.

In 2006, there were six incumbent Republican Senators who had plenty of money, the advantage of incumbency, and traditionally successful consultants.

But the voters in all six states had adopted a simple position: “Not you.” No matter what the GOP Senators attacked their opponents with, the voters shrugged off the attacks and returned to, “Not you.”

The danger for House and Senate Republicans in 2008 is that the voters will say, “Not the Republicans.”

The worst part for them may be the fact that the GOP has already lost the next generation.

Trends in the opinions of America’s youngest voters are often a barometer of shifting political winds. And that appears to be the case in 2008. The current generation of young voters, who came of age during the George W. Bush years, is leading the way in giving the Democrats a wide advantage in party identification, just as the previous generation of young people who grew up in the Reagan years — Generation X — fueled the Republican surge of the mid-1990′s.

When things get bad voters tend reject the current system and are willing and open to trying something different. That’s what happened in the 1930′s. The old saying, “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it” simply does not apply here, it’s broke and it needs fixing. And the biggest problem facing the GOP at this point is that there’s no denying that they broke it.

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