01.26.09
Govener’s race ramblings
Without knowing who the Democratic candidate for governor will be in the 2010 race, it’s tough to speculate on which GOP candidate would be best for the Democrats in a 2010 gubernatorial race. But it’s likely Perry being on the ballot would be the best bet for Democrats to have a chance to win the race in 2010. Without a gubernatorial primary, or another compelling primary race on the Democratic side, there would likely be some Democrats and many Independents choosing to vote in the GOP primary in 2010.
To show where the fight will be in the GOP primary this weekends activities by both Hutchison and Perry were a good preview. As News 8 pointed out Hutchison was showing off her list of 300 supporters [.pdf] and Gov. Perry was at the pro-life rally at the Capitol. A good synopsis of where they both stand on issues important to Republicans is this excerpt from Paul Burka’s recent Texas Monthly article, The Thrilla in Vanilla:
The stakes are high not only for Perry and Hutchison. The race occurs at a time when the Republican brand has lost its cachet. Texas R’s have no immunity from national trends; indeed, one of the reasons they’ve been losing ground in urban and suburban Texas is because of the unpopularity of a president who is a Texas Republican. Is the party too conservative or not conservative enough? The Perry-Hutchison smackdown brings this question to the forefront; it is a proxy fight for the future of the GOP.
Two members of the same party could hardly have more divergent views. Perry began his political career as a Democratic state legislator and became a Republican in 1989 to run for agriculture commissioner. He is the kind of convert who, as the saying goes, is more Catholic than the pope. His support for a bill that would authorize “Choose Life” license plates will help him amass political capital during the current legislative session. Hutchison supports a woman’s right to choose in select circumstances, but she doesn’t call herself pro-choice.
Their views of the role of government are different as well. Perry believes that government’s top priority should be to promote the creation of wealth. What Texas needs most, he argues, is the infrastructure necessary for the state to be business-friendly in a way that stimulates economic growth: reliable water supplies, increased electricity-generating capacity, better roads. He is an ardent disciple of antitax activist Grover Norquist’s dogma of shrinking the size and scope of government.
Hutchison takes a more traditional approach to public policy, one that recalls late lieutenant governor Bob Bullock’s: State leaders, she insists, should identify and prioritize the state’s needs and improve services accordingly. She sees such spending not as the road to ruin but as an investment in the future. As governor, she would favor increased funding for public schools, more flagship universities to stop the “brain drain,” and improvements in public health. From 2005 through 2007, Texas had 1.4 million children who had no health insurance, by far the most of any state. In the fall of 2007, Hutchison voted for the Democratic plan, which provided more coverage under the State Children’s Health Insurance Program than the Republican version (John Cornyn, Texas’s other senator, voted against it). Perry, by contrast, approved deep cuts in the CHIP program during the budget-crunch year of 2003 and has not made restoring them a priority.
From that it would seem that Hutchison has views – at least on choice, public education, and children’s health insurance – are more inline with Democrats than the right wing of her party. Which is why it’s interesting to see some of those in the extreme side of her party, like Rep. John Carter, lining up as a supporter. But her Rockefeller Republican credentials, her more moderate/liberal leanings, may be a realization by Carter and those like him on the right wing, that their party needs to moderate it’s tone in order to hold onto power in Texas.
Some in the Texas GOP have realized that their inability to govern has been the cause of their recent decline, and it seems Hutchison and her supporters, no matter which side of the Texas GOP divide they come from, have as well. It’ll be interesting to hear how those like Carter explain their support of Hutchison and her moderate leanings on the issues.
One thing that became apparent while watching Huthison on News 8, is shehas a very monotone voice that comes off as boring, or dry, on video. Her pers0nality does not seem very magnetic on TV. Harvey Kronberg in his Commentary this week has his thoughts on the race 1 year out.
On the national level, thoughtful Republicans are trying to figure out how to break out of what has become a largely southern, evangelical regionalism and return to a broader, more Reaganesque vision – one more defined by liberty and economic conservatism than issues like, say, opposition to embryonic stem cell research.
That same scenario is playing here in Texas.
On the one side is Gov. Rick Perry who is doubling down on socially conservative issues. On the other side, Kay Bailey Hutchison is talking less about her 94 percent pro-life voting record and more about taxes, business and education.
As for the Democrats at this point there’s no real hurry for anyone to get in. While there’s been some speculation about who may run on the Democratic side, more than likely it’ll work itself out by the end of session. By then we shoulud know what kind of toll the economic crisis is having on Texas and what measures the Texas GOP will take in an attempt to get a handle on it. Chances are this race will not look the same a year from now as it does today.
[UPDATE]: KT and BOR just added this excellent analysis,
On Needing a Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate & Attacking Hutchison.