09.12.06
Be Skeptical Of TxDOT Analysis On Toll Roads
In today’s AAS Ben Wear has an article about an analysis released by TxDOT yesterday – haven’t been able to find it yet, can you point me to it Ben? – State: No tolls would mean 17-cent gas tax. It should come as no surprise to anyone that the report seems to validate the already flawed CAMPO, TxDOT, CTRMA toll road fantasy.
It would take a local gasoline tax of about 17 cents a gallon to replace the money brought in by a controversial second round of toll roads, the Texas Department of Transportation says in an analysis released Monday.
That estimate dwarfs an earlier figure of 2.4 cents a gallon produced by the staff of the Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization. But that 2005 estimate came in answer to a different question: What would it take to replace about $500 million in lost state funding and borrowed money if the five Phase II toll roads were to be built as free roads instead?
This latest calculation takes into account the lost profits from the toll roads over the next four decades, as well as a (hypothetical) $2 billion bond sale in 2048 to build more roads or rail projects, a borrowing that would be supported by the tollway profits still further in the future. That amounts to about $4.4 billion in revenue that would have to be matched by a gas tax, according to the analysis.
What this means is that the flawed projections by all the consulting firms on how much money the state will make after corporate guaranteed profits are paid from these toll roads would take a 17-cent increase in the gas tax. The earlier figure of 2.4-cents is still valid if you just wanted to build these current roads without putting tolls on them, and not have to guarantee corporate profits. It’s hard to believe that anyone is still buying this kind of “analysis”, especially after how these consulting firms, and the games they play, were exposed earlier this year, Denver Post Exposes Exaggerated Estimates. Here’s who presented this study at the CAMPO meeting last night (Item 8 on the agenda), CTRMA Executive Director and former Williamson County Commissioner Mike Heiligenstein, a huge toll road supporter, and a TxDOT employee. It’s always nice to see a hypothetical $2 billion thrown into this “analysis”.
Say what you want about this but what is going on here is this. A state representative, Mark Strama, needed more information, he says, CYA is more like it, before he makes his decision on whether to support of oppose tolls on these roads. The problem for Rep. Strama is this, he now has a biased report supporting the building of these toll roads, what is he going to do?
The right thing to do would be to expose these roads as the corporate swindle of tax payer money that they are. Now that would be representing the people.
[UPDATE]: Off The Kuff has much more on this issue, Toll road math (again), here’s a little bit:
They’re talking about an additional local tax on gas, since the state tax is 20 cents per gallon. I don’t really care about the details of this plan or the politics behind it, I just want to remind everyone of the numbers. I’ve done this calculation before, but it looks like I’m going to have to keep on doing it since the mainstream media doesn’t. So: If you use 40 gallons of gas a week – and remember, that’s the equivalent of driving 600 miles per week while averaging 15 miles per gallon – you’d pay an extra $6.80 per week with that 17 cent tax. I don’t know what the toll structure would be like on this road, but a full-distance round trip on the Westpark Toll Road would set you back $6.50 per day, or $32.50 per week, assuming no weekend driving. Just getting on and off the Westpark Toll Road as part of your daily commute is $10 per week. Tell me again what’s so damn scary about that 17 cent gas tax?
What’s so scary is it has the word “tax” in it.
Eye on Williamson » The Plan Is To Toll Every Raod, From Here To Eternity said,
November 14, 2006 at 10:59 am
[...] Those numbers are based on the Westpark Toll Road, which obviously has a much lower toll than what the Phase II roads will have. With these Phase II roads at 12 cents/mile (.pdf) that weekly expenditure goes up to $72 per week. The 17 cent gas tax brouhaha, don’t forget, was a study done by TxDOT – who has a dog in this hunt – and part of that gas tax number was “lost profits” and “hypothetical future bond sale”. [...]