10.14.09
Texas politics, news and analysis
It looks less and less likely that GOP U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is going to resign, and risk her Senate seat, before we know the results of the GOP Primary in March. It’s becoming more and more obvious that she doesn’t want to take the chance of her political career ending in a loss, especially to Rick Perry.
More from BOR, Kay Bailey Hutchison Waffles Again on Senate Resignation, and Kuff, Once again, from the “Even Kay doesn’t know what Kay is going to do” files. It’ll be interesting to see what’s happening if she still hasn’t resigned as the filing deadline in January approaches.
Earlier in this week there was some very good news for Democrats in Texas, New Study Indicates Huge Advantage for Democratic State House Candidates.
Now there are some solid, tangible numbers for the naysayers and doubters (myself included). The Quorum Report has some interesting numbers from Dana Chiodo. Typically a swing district nationally is a district that is between 47 to 53% Democrat. In Texas a swing District can be as high as 60% Republican according to Chiodo.
That, according to Quorum Report puts Linda Harper Brown, Dan Branch, Dwayne Bohac and Ken Legler directly at risk. It also gives a boost/advantage to incumbents to Kristi Thibaut and Diana Maldonado who both represent suburban areas.
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The way the poll was weighted, it’s hard to find a way to refute the set up. As Quorum Report notes:
Since she began crunching the numbers 12 years ago, Chiodo has stayed away from the high profile marquee name races. Instead, she compiles numbers based on an average of down ballot statewide races seeking to find how voters break when they don’t know the candidate.So, seeking to avoid an aberration at the top of the ticket, Chiodo weighted her numbers using four 2006 down ballot statewide races and two down-ballot judicial races from 2008. The drop off from the top of the ticket in 2008 was about 5%.
Giving both 2006 results 2/3rd weight and 2008 races 1/3rd weight in her formulations might suggest even better numbers for Democrats.
The take-away? The long predicted demographic shift pushing Texas Democrats into a competitive position is clearly underway. While Texas Republicans still have a 400,000-500,000 statewide structural advantage, they appear to be losing ground.
While some may remain skeptical or pessimistic for 2010, it seems the numbers are on our side. All we have left to do, hard work.
As the post say that’s a great sign for Diana Maldonado’s reelection, which confirms that HD-52 has only become more Democratic since 2008.
An interesting report on where current Texas House Speaker Joe Straus is getting his money [pdf] from TPJ’s Lobby Watch. Interesting because of the differences between where Straus is getting his money, so far, compared to where former Speaker Tom Craddick got his [.pdf]. There are many of the same players involved to be sure. One difference can be seen in the chart on page two of Straus’ donations. Notice the second column, and who previously gave nothing to Craddick.
This provides some possible insight into the differences we might see in the upcoming election cycle, as far as house races are concerned. Straus is no near as dependent on ideological money. He has not taken any from James Leininger (who is from San Antonio), and little comparatively thus far from Bob Perry, Harold Simmons, and Texans for Lawsuit Re from. Which is likely because of Straus’ perceived preference, and rightly so, for more gambling in Texas. Which many of those on the ideological, and religious, right have a visceral hate for and see as immoral.
Tie all of that into Straus’ stated commitment not to campaign against Democratic incumbents in 2010, and that may shrink some challengers campaign coffers.
Straus is working hard to help GOP incumbents, but is not working against Democratic incumbents.
“I made it very clear that I would not campaign against incumbents of any party,” he said in an interview this week.
Which means Straus will likely play a big role in districts where Democrats are retiring, or there’s an open seat. Like District 69 where Democrat David Farabee is retiring. This strategy will make Straus a more effective leader if he returns as Speaker to a very closely divided Texas House in 2011.