11.16.09
What will be the results of Hutchison’s (in)actions?
Harvery Kronberg’s latest New 8 column, Race to primaries takes yet another turn, has some good commentary on what the Perry/Hutchison race is doing to the Texas GOP.
First a little background. It was no particular secret that back in 2006 Hutchison wanted to run for governor. Perry was not particularly popular, even among the traditional Republican primary voters, but he had delivered major triumphs to GOP financial backers ranging from severe limitations on lawsuits to creating a homebuilder friendly agency designed to send consumer complaints into a black hole. His judicial appointments were simply icing on the cake.
Perry had earned a second full term, they said. Most promised Hutchison they would support her in 2010 so she stood down.
Her promise to resign was originally meant to reassure her supporters she was serious this time and predicated on the assumption that Perry had bought into the deal.
Last year, he surprised just about every Republican I know when he started teasing the idea of running one more time. Since then, he has run a nearly flawless campaign. Last December, Hutchison was 20 points up, but recent polls suggest she is now 12 points down.
Once it became clear that Perry was going to stay in the hunt, there was no way Hutchison could resign. If she were a mere citizen-candidate, Perry would’ve been able to shut her fundraising down. Many of her contributors fear political reprisal and exile if she should lose. She at least provides some political cover for them by remaining in office.
This situation is going to put the many in the Texas GOP’s careers on hold, possibley for four years. It will make the rest of the GOP primary and down ballot candidates very vanilla, and less than exciting to voters. With essentially the same statewide ballot voters seeking change will have to look to the Democrats. Candidates like Dewhurst and Abbott likely won’t be very excited about running for a third term, for a term they both hope they’ll never have to serve out. Of course Hutchison says she’ll resign in March, but it’s obvious Dewhurst and Abbott don’t believe her, or they would not be running for third terms to the same office.
Which is why it makes sense for current Democratic state Sen. Eliot Shapleigh, who will not seek reelection to the Seante in 2010, to run for Lt. Gov. of Texas. He’ll either be running against Dewhurst, and a job he’d rather not have anymore, or he can get a several month head start on a different opponent. While it’s not likely that Hutchison will resign in March if she loses, it’s probably likely that she won’t finish our her term through 2013. When that happens it’s almost assured that Dewhurst will resign to run for the US Senate. Which is an issue Shapliegh can use against Dewhurst as long as he continues to run for I-must-stay-relevant-in-politics Lt. Gov.’s race.
This TexasTrib article on Shapliegh, Shapleigh Ever After, talks about how he may be looking at joining the Democratic Primary for Governor. But with his legislative and Senate experience he’d be a better fit for the job of Lt. Gov. No matter who wins the Democratic nomination for governor, having Shapliegh on the ticket for Lt. Gov. would add significant heft and experience on the Democratic side.
As we proceed, and until things shake out on the GOP side, voters will continue to wonder if GOP candidates for certain offices are just biding their time and waiting to move up. (Jason Embry has the latest on the possible GOP musical chairs in today’s AAS.) The Democrats can use this voter angst with the GOP’s ballot uncertainty to their advantage and give voters a sense of stability and calm. The Democratic side of the ballot will be set after the March primary. Set with candidates who want to serve the people of Texas in those offices for which they are running. Voters will know that the Democratic candidates, if elected, will stay in the positions they were elected to through 2014. Texans won’t have to worry about them trading up once Hutchison does, whatever it is she will do, in the coming months and years.