11.24.09
TX-GOV: Thoughts on yesterday’s Democratic shakeup
Anyone attuned to Texas Politics is aware of the shake-up on the Democratic side in the race to see who will be the nominee. If not it’s this simple – Tom Schieffer is out and Houston Mayor Bill White is likely in. Yesterday’s actions bring a couple thoughts, at least, to my mind. Was Schieffer a “placeholder” for White all along, to keep folks like state Senators Kirk Watson and Leticia Van de Putte, and other moderates out of the race? I know, if White enters, Hank Gilbert will do what he knows it right, I just hope it somehow involves Hank being on the general election ballot in November 2010. If White enters he’s the immediate front runner because he has two things a Democrat running statewide hasn’t had in a while, money and a strong base of support.
The best wrap-up of analysis from yesterday come from PDiddie at Brains and Eggs, More on White and the battle for governor.
More on Scott Atlas if you need to know it. Harvey Kronberg has more of the juicy grist (is that an oxymoron?) in this from QR:
In the words of Democratic advisor Harold Cook, “You better get your popcorn and go to the bathroom ‘cuz you don’t want to miss a minute of this.” …
In a first sort-through, the big damage may well be to Kay Bailey Hutchison. While we never expected big Democratic crossover vote into the Republican March primary, an effort to stop Farouk Shami and Kinky Friedman with an “A” team candidate becomes more important. (No disrespect to Hank Gilbert who has run a very active, issue oriented campaign)
An exciting Democratic primary cannot be good for the Republican gubernatorial challenger.
Harvey’s spot on here. I’ll go further, however: there’s not a lot of difference between Hutchison and White once you take the party label off. Establishment, conservative, calm, even bland. The rumors you heard months ago about her sharing information with him about her plans suggests that the two have something more than just shared policy interests. Before I digress …
On the other hand, Governor Perry’s life just got a little more complicated. Even Hutchison supporters acknowledge that he has driven the narrative of the campaign and out-maneuvered his challenger at every turn. Hutchison went from twenty points (up) at the end of last year to 12 down in recent polls. Although the primary is still a hundred days away, the betting line has been consistently swinging toward the incumbent.
More on that from this anonymous blogging GOP consultant (via Kuffner)...
White seems to be the best shot at the governor’s mansion, and that’s trouble for Rick Perry’s campaign. Slipping by with 39% of the vote in 2006, Perry will fare poorly in a head-to-head with White. Moderates in Houston will mostly back White, who is widely popular there. The trick for White will be spreading the Houston support throughout the rest of the state.
On the R’s side, primary voters will be faced with a pretty clear choice: nominate a candidate (Perry) who will struggle to beat a widely popular Houston mayor, or a candidate (Hutchison) whose statewide popularity is unmatched in recent Texas political history. No matter what happens, Perry will have to shift to the center. He’s been driving hard right for a long time, though… it’s possible that he may never be able to win over moderates at this point.
And for those of us in Williamson County, and/or HD-52, and all down ballot races there’s this on what White would bring to the 2010 election.
Republicans still have the incumbency advantage and are more battle-tested. And although Texas is still a center-right state, demographics are changing and Texas could turn purple sooner than anyone expects.
Meanwhile, the entire field in the greater Harris County area just got shook up. Republican-targeted Democrat Kristi Thibaut is in a little more secure position today than she was yesterday. Similarly, Democrat-targeted Republicans Dwayne Bohac and Ken Legler are on shakier ground than they were just a few hours ago.
Thibaut, Valinda Bolton, Joe Heflin, Diana Maldonado, and those other Texas House Democrats elected two years and four years ago that closed in on the majority are likely feeling very encouraged. [Emphasis added.] Bohac, Legler, turncoat Chuck Hobson and half a dozen other Republicans across the state ought to be very concerned. TeaBagger mania just can’t stay stoked all the way to next November; the fury is already waning and the Republicans will fragment into a back-biting morass by this time next year.
That’s what having a well financed candidate, with a good organization, that can bring in Independent and moderate Republicans against the pro-secession Gov. Rick Perry can do. Allowing the Democrats an opportunity to hold, or maybe even pick up a seat or two – then possibly the Speakers gavel – in the Texas House, would be huge going into a redistricting session. And if Eliot Shapleigh runs for Lt. Gov., the who knows? That’s why White running for governor changes the entire 2010 political landscape in Texas.
Bill White is the Democrats best chance of taking back the Governor’s Mansion in Texas in 2010.